position to predict their need to fill potentially vacant

Obtaining the organization's need for human resources to fill its vacant or potential vacant positions in the future is not only from the labor market or the external labor supply, but it can also be from within the organization as a result of the movement of human resources vertically, horizontally or both. Vertical movement is meant for promotion from lower posts to higher posts in the organizational ladder of the organization, and horizontal movement is meant for transfer from one department to another or from one job to another

As a result, the task of Human Resources Management in attracting human resources from the external labor market is focused on filling positions at the lower levels of the organizational structure of the organization in general, and filling positions at other levels will be by promotion or transfer from the lower levels

In general, especially in countries with closed functional systems. Estimating the internal movement of human resources in the organization vertically and horizontally makes the management of

Human resources are in a position to predict their need to fill potentially vacant positions in the coming period, and the possibility of filling them from within the organization, or

Resort to the external labor market. There are multiple methods that human resources management can use to predict the number and competence of its employees who may be ready to fill vacant and potential positions in the future, including: Salim and Saleh: 2000: 124).

The stock of skills.

Substitution maps.

Skills Inventory skill inventory

The skills inventory is a method to estimate the size of the internal supply of human resources in the organization, which is the preparation by the Human Resources Department of a list containing detailed information about its human resources, which includes the following:

- The name of the employee / his current job / age and marital status.

- His competence

- His total service life ; 

- Educational level ; 

- The training courses he passed inside and outside the organization - the length of his service in his current job

- Results of the annual evaluation of the last three years

- The opinions of his superiors regarding his ability to take on the highest responsibility - his physical and intellectual abilities, his readiness to learn.

- His creative and evolutionary abilities. - His aspirations and ambitions to be promoted vertically or transferred horizontally. - Thanks, absences and penalties.

- His interactive abilities and the opinions of his subordinates in him.

This information and others give a clear picture to the human resources department in particular and the senior management in general about the possibilities and capabilities of its human resources and what are the prospects for the promotion and transfer of any of them to fill vacant positions in the organization in the future in light of his eligibility for promotion and his abilities to advance them safely and

.(125

2Replacement chart-replacement or succession maps

Substitution maps are one of the methods that can be adopted to predict the movement of human resources within the organization through promotion, especially for senior positions in it. The number of exchange or replacement maps is useful in human resources planning, as it provides the possibility of analyzing information about the existing workforce, and the possibilities of its movement

Verticality of the future in view of the level of performance. The extent of eligibility for promotion to higher positions on the job ladder, the extent of the need for training programs to qualify them to fill those positions, and to determine the extent of the potential need for the external labor market

Due to the unavailability of commensurate human resources for replacement and their need for a longer period to acquire the required experience and skill, or vice versa (fig.19) (Hashim 1989: 92).

Another example / suppose that one of the productive departments in a company estimated the productivity of a certain product by (67,000) units to meet the requirements of the sales plan, and time studies have shown that the average productivity of a skilled worker is (4) units per day, and that days

Annual work (300) working days, the average productivity of a skilled worker will be (4×300)=1200 units, and then the number of skilled workers needed to produce (67,000) units per year = 67,000 / 1200 = 56 skilled workers, if the number of skilled workers currently in the company is 47 skilled workers, then the human resources department should try to get (9) skilled workers from the labor market

The exterior.

The method of the following equations:

This method depends on the availability of historical data on the movement of workers for a long series of years, and the more years of the series, the better, and the more accurate the results, and this method assumes no fundamental changes in the nature of the organization's work or a change in its goals or production and marketing methods, for example:

This is the method that was originally used to predict the market share of organizations

To measure the effectiveness of advertising and promotional campaigns in attracting potential consumers, their uses have evolved to include the field of forecasting public forces and studying the prospects for the transfer of manpower between departments of the same organization or between them and others.(216 : 1958: Fraser) other organizations.

This method is based on studying the changes that a certain category of employees gets at a certain time in a particular profession, job or department and comparing them with the changes that got this same category and the same profession at another time. In other words, they do

To study the movement of a number of employees from one department to another, from one profession to another, or in one organization to another during the past number of years, and to use this as a basis for predicting the direction of change from one case to another of the coming years. An example: if the number of applicants for a particular job over the past 8 years was 1000 people, and the number of those selected from among them was 120. The ratio of the probability of transition from the state of candidacy for a job to the state of employment = 1000/120 = ., 12, and if we assume that the number of people nominated to a study program or study case outside the country is (10) people, the probability of nomination to study programs will be 120/10 =

 083 study programs for any of the applicants for a job, if we want to find out the probability of being nominated in a study program for any of the applicants for positions in this organization, then that probability is the product of the probability of moving from application to employment, in the probability of moving from employment status to joining the study program. That is, the candidacy of an individual = 12 × . ، 083 = . ، 01. The organization can use this method to predict the size of the workforce, its movement, transition or development from one job to another for future periods, using the information available to it from the records of its human resources department for the past several years, taking into account the following assumptions or requirements (zwelf: 1984: 67). 1-the organization should have records containing sufficient information on the movement of its human resources horizontally and vertically for appropriate previous periods in addition to external movement to and from

Organization.

2-the various policies and programs of the organization enjoy relative stability or constancy. 3-the initial events on which the Markov chain is built are characterized by the character of constancy

Relative. To clarify how this method is used to predict the volume of human resources and their transitional movement between jobs, we assume the following case: