To other jobs or sites. These maps contain information about the names of employees holding current positions, how long they have been holding them, the names of candidates for them, the degree of readiness of each of them, their age, diverse abilities, performance level, and their chance of promotion compared to others. One of the problems with these maps is that they rely on personal criteria more than objective criteria, and they do not take into account internal and external environmental changes.the following is a schematic model of these maps and how to prepare them.
The methods of forecasting the needs of human resources the methods of forecasting the needs of human resources range from simple methods that depend on the experience of the senior management and the manager of the human resources department that depend on the development of the volume of sales, production or service during the future period, to complex methods
Which adopts mathematical equations and statistical methods such as: real-time correlation equations, Markov chains and others, and we will explain some of the methods that are used to predict the volume of human resources needed for the organization in the coming period of both types:
(Braham: 1978: 44).
workload and Workforce Analysis
This method of determining human resource needs, as shown in Figure (20), is one of the simple methods that depends on the correlation between the sales budget or estimating the sales volume for the coming period and the expected volume of production, purchases, services, etc. If it is possible to predict the volume of future sales accurately, the organization can predict the volume of its products of various goods for that period with the same accuracy, and thus be able to determine the volume of work (workload, and then the number of employees needed to accomplish that work and compare it with the number of employees in the required specialties to obtain the final
The following example illustrates this (388 :977 :Gluece) necessary from the labor market method: suppose that the textile company decided to produce (5000000) meters of fabric to meet the needs of its marketing department in (2002), and that the production of one meter of fabric is carried out after the following operations fabric dyeing work, Palace work, supplement work, engineering work, service work, administrative work at a rate of .0.2.5.1.1.2.3) minutes respectively. The size of the workforce in this company for the year (2001) is as follows: 30 engineers, 100 textile workers, 50 dyeing workers, 25 minors, 35 supplementary workers, 12 workers, services of 29 administrative staff.
Hypothetical case: the following data are available from the records of an organization in the state administrative apparatus for the last seven years between the years 1993-1999, representing the movement of employees between the service and production departments, and the data represent the total of the above-mentioned years.
1. the number of employees of the production department first year is 800
2-the number of production staff remaining in their jobs until the end of the year is 600 3-the number of production staff transferred to the maintenance department is 150 4 the number of production staff leaving the service is 50
5. first year service department staff 450
6 - the number of employees of the service department remaining until the end of the year is 300 7 - the number of employees of the service department transferred to the production department is 130 8 - the number of employees of the service department, leaving the service is 20 2 - the organization has recruited 180 new employees in the production department and 40 new employees in the services department at the beginning of the year 2000, and wants to recruit 120 employees in the production department and 20 employees in the maintenance department at the beginning of 2001.
It is required to use a Markov chain to calculate the following:
1-prospects of presence in the production and maintenance sections at the end of 2001 2 - prospects of leaving the service in the production and maintenance sections for the two years (2000-2001). - 3-the possibilities of moving between the two sections.
Solution method:
To build a Markov chain, it is necessary to extract the ratios of the transition movement between the two departments as follows: 1 - the ratio of the number of employees in each department at the beginning of the year.
2-the percentage of the number of employees remaining in each department at the end of the year. 3-the percentage of the number of employees transferred from and to the two departments. 4-the ratio of the number of employees who left the service, and those who returned to it in each department. 5-representation of these ratios in a table called the ratios table.
Production department:
- The ratio of the number of employees remaining in it = 80/600-0,75
- The ratio of the number of employees transferred to the maintenance department = 800/150=, 19 - the ratio of the number of employees leaving the service = 800/50 = .،06
- The ratio of the number of employees who returned to service = zero /800 = zero
Maintenance department:
- The ratio of the number of rest in the section = 450/300 =, 67
Which the organization wants to use to perform its various operations in the future. (Hashim:
(74:989
This method is based on knowing the percentage of an individual's contribution to the output (one unit or transaction) during a unit of time, and then multiplying this ratio by the volume of the target output for a certain period of time, we get the volume of human resources required for this period. If the per capita contribution ratio is (0.021) to the outputs of a particular organization, and the volume of targeted or planned outputs for the next year is (38,000) units or transactions, then the volume of required labor is equal to = 798 employees, and if the number of currently existing employees is (762) employees, then the human resources department should work to attract (36) new employees to the organization. What should be taken into account is the level of
The extent of this impact on the volume of labor required to achieve the target outputs, so that the organization does not find itself in front of a situation of unemployment provided.
Labor market analysis job offer) that predicting the size and type of human resources required for the next period does not mean anything unless accompanied by an analysis of the labor market or predicting the size and type of human resources available in the labor market during the same period. Knowing the organization's needs for manpower in the future is the first step that must be followed by another step is to seek to meet these needs from the labor market if the necessary human resources are not available to meet
These needs from within the organization through transfer or promotion, especially in countries that adopt the closed system, as for countries that adopt the open system, their need for the labor market their needs for human resources are much greater than the first, because they do not hide and commit to the promotion or transfer system to fill vacancies in them
Haris:1977: 71).
What is meant by the labor market is a group of individuals who are willing and able to work from certain specialties, skills and abilities, employed temporarily or permanently by a certain entity or not employed.
Organizations of various types may face a shortage of their necessary human resources from specialties and skills
Due to the expansion of production volumes in it, or as a result of relatively high work turnover, or using a different technology to that used previously, which makes it an urgent need to resort to the labor market for the required specialties and skills after determining the structure
Appropriate to work in view of the content of the posts, their tasks and determine the importance of each work or .(84:3 :1976: Bright) a function in achieving the goals of the organization and its production processes. That the analysis of the labor market begins from the study and analysis of population statistics, general censuses
Population, their age, sexual and professional distributions, educational and cultural levels, regulations and legislation, the number, size and diversity of public and specialized schools, universities and institutes existing in society, the state policy on foreign employment, etc. The following is an illustration of this.
One of the important indicators for the study and analysis of the labor market is the analysis of the population structure of society in terms of age, gender, profession, level of Education.
1-Age structure: analyzing society and knowing its age distribution helps to know the volume of available labor, that is, the number of members of society who are able to perform work from the age groups included in the productive categories of the population, since labor laws in many countries of the World determine the age groups that are allowed to be used for work between (65-15) years in general, but،
This age group also includes groups that are considered outside the labor force that cannot be used and cannot be considered within the labor market, namely students, housewives, disabled people, Prison inmates and those enrolled in military service, and people with diseases
Chronic and mental illnesses on the other hand. It is useful to recall that the United Nations Statistical Office divided the society into two parts: (al-Kubaisi:
A-individuals within the labor force who participate in the production of goods and services in society, whether for the private sector or government work, and whether their contribution is physical, mental, or both. It also includes individuals who are able and willing to work, but are unemployed for any reason, and they are those whom we can call the labor market. B-individuals outside the labor force who do jobs that do not directly contribute to the production of goods and services, including housewives, students, pensioners, disabled people, children and the elderly over the age of (65) as long as they do not engage in productive work.
Therefore, the analysis of the age structure of the population should help to find out detailed information about the number or percentage of categories that are considered only within the labor force, and to exclude other categories that are outside the labor force, to connect to the size of the supply
In addition, the impact of the economic and civilized progress of societies on the labor supply, especially of children under the age of (15) years, as well as women, in developed societies, the proportions of the supply of children within the labor market are lower compared to developing or different societies, where these percentages are significantly higher due to low living standards and low wages, forcing children to look for work to contribute with adults to meet the living requirements of the family.we can cite the following table showing the ratio of the contribution of age groups to the economic activity of society according to the classifications of the United Nations Statistical Office: 1987: 69). Table No. (10) shows the contribution of diverse age groups to economic activity in society
2-sexual composition: sexual composition means the distribution of the population into two categories, namely:
This analysis contributes to a large extent to the knowledge of the size of the labor market or the labor supply, as the percentage of women's contribution to work varies from one society to another depending on the variation in social norms
While we find that a large percentage of females in developing societies are not allowed by social norms and traditions to work, they go into household chores and raising children, while the percentage of females working in various fields is very high compared to the former. Therefore, knowing the ratio of men to the total population size is considered .(1973 :82: Moris) it is very useful to know the volume of work. 3-professional structure: the professional structure refers to the professions or trades practiced by the members of the community and it allows the organization to know the job offer or the labor market of a particular profession or a certain skill, noting that the analysis according to the occupational distribution of the population allows to know a number of
Comments
Post a Comment